How accurate are stock market analysts?

How accurate are stock market analysts? If you’re going to invest money in the stock market based on their forecasts, this is an important question.

As technology companies go, Microsoft is a pretty stable, predictable company, so I thought they’d make a good test of analysts’ accuracy. As the image shows, the analysts “hit” on their predictions/forecasts for Microsoft 47% of the time over one year, and 79% of the time over two years. It’s funny/interesting/curious that those numbers are the opposite of what I’d expect; I assumed they’d be more accurate over a shorter time frame.

Analysts were 88% and 93% for Walmart for the last two years; 33% and 40% for Exxon; only 13% and 20% for JC Penney; and just 13% and 23% for Apple.

The image and numbers come from

Oracle Apache JCP rift - Apache (ASF) resigns

Oracle Apache JCP rift: "The Apache Software Foundation has resigned its seat on the Java SE/EE Executive Committee (EC). Apache has served on the EC for the past 10 years, winning the JCP 'Member of the Year' award 4 times, and recently was ratified for another term with support from 95% of the voting community."

That's how to the Apache Software Foundation blog post begins when describing why they have quit the Java JCP EC. They later add:

Doug Lea leaving the Java Community Process

I was originally going to title this article "Is Oracle Killing Java?" and write about a number of recent events in the Java community, but I'll try to just stick to the most recent fact, which is that Doug Lea is resigning from the JCP Executive Committee. (JCP stands for Java Community Process.)