probability

A “Minority Report” Monte Carlo simulation in Scala

This article shares the source code for a Monte Carlo simulation that I wrote in Scala. It was inspired by the movie Minority Report, as well as my own experience.

Background

For the purposes of this simulation, imagine that you have three people that are each “right” roughly 80% of the time. For instance, if they take a test with 100 questions, each of the three individuals will get 80 of the questions right, although they may not get the same questions right or wrong. Given these three people, my question to several statisticians was, “If two of the people have the same answer to a given question, what are the odds that they are correct? Furthermore, if all three of them give the same answer to a question, what are the odds that they are right?”

A Java method that returns a random boolean value based on a probability alvin June 30, 2019 - 8:14pm

If you ever need a Java method that returns a boolean value based on a given probability, I can confirm that this method works:

/**
 * `probability` should be given as a percentage, such as
 * 10.0 (10.0%) or 25.5 (25.5%). As an example, if `probability` 
 * is 60% (60.0), 100 calls to this function should return ~60 
 * `true` values.
 * (Note that Math.random returns a value >= 0.0 and < 1.0.)
 */
static boolean getRandomBoolean(float probability) {
    double randomValue = Math.random()*100;  //0.0 to 99.9
    return randomValue <= probability;
}

“We’re all special snowflakes”

I ended up in the hospital (ER) again yesterday. For some reason, after I got out and was laying in bed, I started thinking about and looking up different odds: